A Compact Born of Generosity, Sustained by Self-Denial
The assumptions that underwrote this bargain were, in hindsight, profoundly optimistic. The treaty assumed that Pakistan was genuinely committed to the norms of civilised inter-state relations. It is assumed that the elaborate dispute-resolution machinery — the Permanent Indus Commission, the Neutral Expert, the Court of Arbitration — would operate in good faith. It is assumed that the developmental needs of India’s border states, the demographic pressures on Punjab’s agriculture, the irreversible depletion of groundwater, and the shifting hydrology of a warming Himalayan landscape would remain frozen in the geopolitical amber of 1960. Not one of these assumptions has survived intact.

Over the past 65 years, India has utilised even its modest eastern river entitlement with chronic inefficiency. The Ranjit Sagar (Thein) Dam, conceived in the early 1960s, was not commissioned until 2000. Shahpur Kandi Dam, a critical downstream balancing reservoir on the Ravi, spent twenty-eight years mired in inter-state cost disputes before civil works were finally completed in 2024. The Ujh Multipurpose Project on a Ravi tributary secured central approval only in 2022 and remains incomplete. Each year of delay has allowed roughly 0.6 MAF of India’s own Ravi entitlement to flow unhindered across the border into Pakistan, while farmers in the Malwa region in the Indian Punjab drill ever deeper for groundwater and the water table sinks by nearly half a metre annually.
On the western rivers — the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — India’s record is even more dispiriting. The treaty permits 3.6 MAF of live storage on these rivers; India has built a fraction of that, largely the small pondage at Baglihar. Technical assessments place India’s hydropower potential on the western rivers at 18.6 gigawatts; installed capacity has struggled to reach 3.2 GW. Pakistan, meanwhile, weaponised the treaty’s dispute architecture with relentless efficiency — contesting the design of Baglihar, Kishanganga, and Ratle through every available forum, converting what was intended as a safety valve into a mechanism of deliberate harassment and developmental paralysis. When India formally invoked Article XII(3) in August 2024, seeking renegotiation to reflect sixty-five years of changed circumstances — demographic growth, environmental degradation, energy needs, climate change — Pakistan refused even to engage.
Pahalgam and the Right of Abeyance — The Legal Foundation

It is also worth noting the technical case for review, independent of the security dimension. The treaty’s annexures, drafted for a pre-computer age, impose storage caps and structural design constraints that render true multi-purpose reservoirs on the western rivers almost impossible to build. They embed a procedural architecture that Pakistan has systematically exploited — filing objections, triggering international arbitration, seeking stays — to delay, redesign, or abandon Indian projects. In August 2025, the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague issued, ex parte and without India’s participation, an Award on Issues of General Interpretation essentially directing India to ‘let flow’ the western rivers for Pakistan’s unrestricted benefit. India has correctly and contemptuously refused to recognise the tribunal’s jurisdiction. No external forum can compel India to act against its own national security and sovereign riparian rights. The era of deference to bodies that Pakistan alone has chosen to invoke — while sponsoring violence — is over.
The World Has Changed — Sovereignty Trumps Parchment
Iran is the most instructive contemporary parallel. Facing sustained military assault by the United States, Israel, and their regional allies — including strikes on its nuclear infrastructure, assassination of its scientific and military leadership, and an extended campaign of economic strangulation — Iran has not retreated behind the Vienna Convention or invoked international arbitration. It has acted unilaterally, assertively, and in calculated defiance of norms it regards as weaponised against its interests.
Iran has gone further still. Its parliament has passed legislation formalising the toll structure, and Tehran has formally demanded, as one of its five conditions for ending the war, international recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea designates as subject to the right of transit passage for all nations. President Trump has blustered on social media that Iran ‘better not’ impose such fees. Iran has imposed them anyway. The international legal order, in short, has been unable to prevent a nation under existential military assault from asserting sovereign control over a natural chokepoint and extracting a price for its use. The norms have bent. The geography has not.
The United States itself has, over the past decade, withdrawn from or repudiated international agreements — the Paris Climate Accord, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Iran nuclear deal, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty — on the grounds of a changed national interest, without suffering any enforceable international consequences. Russia has violated the Budapest Memorandum guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity with impunity. China has ignored the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award with equal impunity. The international legal order is not, in practice, a system of enforceable constraint on great powers; it is a vocabulary that states deploy selectively, invoking it against adversaries and ignoring it when it inconveniences themselves. India, for too long, has played by rules no one else followed.
The altered geostrategic environment offers India a specific and time-limited diplomatic opening. The United States, increasingly frustrated with Pakistan’s double-dealing — its role as both counterterrorism partner and terror sanctuary — and acutely aware of the regional instability that emanates from Rawalpindi’s military-intelligence complex, is in a position to apply meaningful pressure on Pakistan not to convert a bilateral water dispute into an international sympathy campaign. India must use this window with urgency and precision. Washington should be left in no doubt that India will not accept any international mediation or arbitral award on the IWT while Pakistan continues to sponsor violence on Indian soil. The price of American silence in international forums on this question should be clearly articulated and, where necessary, extracted.
The National Security Dimension — Water as a Strategic Asset
Punjab today draws barely twenty-seven per cent of its irrigation from surface water. The rest comes from groundwater that is being exhausted at a rate that should alarm every security planner in South Block. The state’s extraction rate of 34 billion cubic metres per year runs against a recharge of 22 billion cubic metres — a structural deficit of 12 BCM annually. The water table declines by nearly half a metre every year. In some districts of Malwa, the decline is even steeper. Within a generation, without radical intervention, Punjab’s agriculture — the foundation of India’s food security — faces a crisis that no amount of minimum support price policy or farm loan waiver can address. The groundwater simply will not be there.

The western rivers of the Indus basin are the answer to this crisis. They are, quite literally, the solution that flows past Punjab’s border every year while India watches. The Chenab, the Jhelum, the Indus — rivers that rise in India’s territory, descend through Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, and carry water that India has, under the iniquitous terms of the 1960 treaty, been legally constrained from using for consumptive purposes — can be made to serve Punjab’s farmers, Punjab’s aquifers, and India’s border security. Their waters are a sovereign national resource. They must be treated as such — not as a matter of agricultural policy but as a matter of national security, addressed with the urgency, funding, and institutional focus that the category demands.
The national security case extends beyond Punjab. Jammu & Kashmir, now a Union Territory directly administered by the Centre, stands to gain enormously from the infrastructure that the treaty’s abeyance makes possible. Hydropower from the Chenab and Jhelum cascades will reduce J&K’s dependence on imported energy, power its industries, and reduce the economic marginalisation that has for decades fed separatist sentiment. Irrigation infrastructure in the Kathua-Samba corridor will integrate the border belt economically into the Union — a canal is a more durable instrument of national integration than any other measure. The Ujh Multipurpose Project, the Bursar and Sawalkot dams, the Marhu Tunnel connecting the Chenab to the Ravi-Beas system — these are not merely engineering projects. They are instruments of statecraft.
The Engineering Strategy — Connectivity, Not Headlines
The topography of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh imposes real engineering constraints. The gorge country is seismically active, precipitation is extreme, and the construction environment is among the most demanding on earth. True large-scale storage — of the kind that would allow India to regulate seasonal flows to Pakistan with the precision of a tap — requires decades of construction and hundreds of thousands of crores of investment. This is the long game, and it must be played. But it is not the game of the next five years.

The game of the next five years is connectivity — the inter-basin transfer infrastructure that moves water from the western rivers to the eastern river system, replenishes the Ravi and Beas, recharges Punjab’s aquifers, and establishes irreversible hydrological facts on the ground. Specifically:
The Marhu Tunnel (Chenab–Ravi Diversion): A forty-two-kilometre conduit from the Chenab to the Ravi-Beas system, capable of transferring up to 4 MAF annually. This single project, more than any other, converts the abeyance from a diplomatic signal into a hydrological reality. Once the Marhu Tunnel is operational, Pakistan’s agricultural economy faces a permanent, structural reduction in available water — not as a political threat but as an engineering fact.
The Jhelum–Ravi Gravity Tunnel: A thirty-eight-kilometre bore under the Pir Panjal that delivers 1 MAF annually into the Ravi command, firming Shahpur Kandi’s supplies and providing Jammu’s first Himalayan drinking-water line. This is simultaneously a water security project, an urban infrastructure project, and a strategic asset.
The Baramulla Lift Scheme (Jhelum–Beas): A pumped transfer of 1.2 MAF annually from the Jhelum at Baramulla to Pong Reservoir on the Beas, bolstering irrigation across central and south Punjab. Combined with the Marhu Tunnel, this would add over 5 MAF to the Ravi-Beas system — enough to expand canal irrigation in Punjab from 780,000 to over 1.1 million hectares.
Bursar (1.2 MAF, 800 MW) and Sawalkot (1.8 MAF, 1,856 MW): The flagship storage projects on the Chenab. Their clearances are moving. They must be treated as national projects with 100 per cent Central funding, mission-mode timelines, and zero tolerance for procedural delay.
Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) as a statutory obligation: At least fifteen per cent of all diverted western-river water must be channelled into MAR systems — percolation tanks, infiltration basins, retrofitted tubewells — in Punjab’s Malwa belt. This is the only route to reversing the groundwater crisis within a decade. MAR must not be treated as a footnote to irrigation policy; it must be a mandatory, measurable, audited national commitment.
Water as a Bargaining Chip — When Pakistan Comes Begging
When India has built the Marhu Tunnel, raised the gates at Sawalkot and Bursar, completed the Jhelum inter-basin transfers, and established a comprehensive reservoir management programme on the Chenab, it will hold, for the first time since 1960, an adjustable hydraulic valve of genuinely strategic consequence. The question then is not whether to use it — the infrastructure will use it automatically, by capturing water that would otherwise flow to Pakistan — but how to deploy the leverage it creates.
When Pakistan eventually comes to the table — and it will, because it must — it will come not as an equal partner invoking a 60-year-old treaty, but as a state in a water crisis, seeking relief from a neighbour it has spent decades trying to destabilise. That is the moment for India to bargain — not from a position of charity but from one of sovereign strength. The price of water must be paid in the only currency India should accept: the verifiable, permanent, internationally monitored dismantlement of the terror infrastructure — the training camps, the financial networks, the intelligence cut-outs, the diplomatic cover — that Pakistan has maintained and deployed against India since 1947.
The Institutional Framework — National Projects, Dedicated Authority, Zero Delay
The following are non-negotiable requirements for a credible national programme:
A National Indus Basin Authority (NIBA): A dedicated body under the Ministry of Jal Shakti, with statutory powers to plan, sanction, and execute the Western-to-Eastern Transfer Programme. NIBA must have the authority to grant parallel clearances, override inter-ministerial delays, and hold contractors and state governments to time-bound milestones. Its chief executive must have the rank and access of a Union Cabinet Secretary, and its budget must be ring-fenced against annual appropriation cycles.
100 per cent Central funding for all National Projects: The inter-state cost-sharing model has been the single greatest institutional saboteur of water infrastructure in India. Shahpur Kandi was stalled for years because Punjab and J&K could not agree on who would pay for what. Bursar sits on the Marusudar, a Jhelum tributary in J&K; its benefits flow primarily to Punjab. Treating it as a bilateral project is a formula for another thirty-year delay. Every project on the western rivers and every inter-basin transfer corridor must be declared a National Project, funded entirely by the Centre, with riparian state allocation settled by parliamentary legislation, not by bilateral negotiation.
A Basin-First Statute with a ‘notwithstanding’ clause: Senior Advocate Mohan Katarki’s proposed Transfer of Water of Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej) Bill, 2025, expanded and strengthened as this writer has proposed in an earlier analysis, must be introduced in Parliament. Its central features — Union planning control, basin-first allocation, prohibition on out-of-basin diversion, mandatory Managed Aquifer Recharge, and a notwithstanding clause that prospectively neutralises the Supreme Court’s SYL decrees — provide the legal architecture on which the engineering programme can be built with confidence and without fear of judicial interdiction.
Routing around the institutional graveyard: The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has, over the decades, functioned as the primary graveyard of strategic infrastructure in India — not because its mandate is wrong but because its processes have been captured by dilatory, often bad-faith objections. The Central Water Commission has similarly been risk-averse to the point of paralysis. NIBA must have the authority to grant fast-track clearances for national-security-designated projects, with judicial review limited to the Supreme Court and only in exceptional circumstances. The Ministry of Finance must be directed to treat Indus Basin infrastructure as a security expenditure rather than a development expenditure subject to the usual squeeze.
A national security framing at the highest level: The Cabinet Committee on Security must formally designate the Indus Basin infrastructure programme as a national security matter and supervise it accordingly. The Chief of Defence Staff, the National Security Advisor, and the Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister must be part of the oversight architecture. Water is no longer merely an irrigation question; it is a border security question, a food security question, and a question of strategic leverage. Its governance must reflect this reality.
The Destination — Sovereign Water Stewardship
What comes next is not about revenge or headlines. It is about transforming a political signal into a hydrological fact, and a hydrological fact into a strategic reality. When the Marhu Tunnel carries Chenab water into the Ravi-Beas system, when Sawalkot rises above the Chenab gorge, when Bursar holds the Marusudar’s snowmelt for Punjab’s dry season, when the water table in Malwa stops falling — at that point, and only at that point, will the abeyance of the IWT have been converted from symbolism into sovereignty.

Time is the one resource that cannot be recovered. The glaciers retreat. The aquifers fall. Every monsoon season that passes without a Marhu Tunnel in the ground is a season of lost opportunity and accumulated strategic deficit. The projects must begin. The authority must be constituted. The funds must be allocated. The Parliament must legislate.






